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Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 41A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...DORIAN'S CORE MOVING FINALLY MOVING AWAY FROM GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...
...DANGEROUS WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE WILL CONTINUE
ON GRAND BAHAMA THROUGH THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 78.7W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM N OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has changed the Hurricane Warning to
a Tropical Storm Warning for Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands
in the northwestern Bahamas.

The Tropical Storm Watch for Lake Okeechobee has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet FL to South Santee River SC

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River SC to Cape Lookout NC

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL
* North of Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Edisto Beach SC
* North of South Santee River SC to Duck NC
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Edisto Beach SC

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts of
the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian,
as additional watches or warnings may be required today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
by NWS Doppler radar near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 78.7 West.
Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a
slightly faster motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is
expected later today and tonight.  A turn toward the north is
forecast by Wednesday evening, followed by a turn toward the
north-northeast Thursday morning.  On this track, the core of
extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will gradually move north of
Grand Bahama Island through this evening.  The hurricane will then
move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late today through
Wednesday evening, very near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts
Wednesday night and Thursday, and near or over the North Carolina
coast late Thursday and Thursday night.

Data from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum
sustained winds remain near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts.
Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from Air Force
Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm and hurricane conditions will continue on
Grand Bahama Island through tonight.

Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the Hurricane
Warning area in Florida overnight.  Hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area as early as Wednesday and could
spread northward within the watch area through Thursday.

In South Florida, tropical storm conditions are expected within the
Tropical Storm Warning area through today.  Along the coast of
northeastern Florida and Georgia, tropical storm conditions are
expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on Wednesday.

STORM SURGE:  Water levels should very slowly subside on Grand
Bahamas Island and the Abaco Islands through tonight. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flagler/Volusia County Line FL to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft
Jupiter Inlet FL to the Flagler/Volusia County Line FL...3 to 5 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds.  The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Northwestern Bahamas...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm
totals over 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula north of West Palm Beach
through Georgia...3 to 6 inches, isolated 9 inches.
Southeast Virginia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Large swells are affecting the northwestern Bahamas, the
Florida east coast, and the coast of Georgia.  These swells are
expected to spread northward along much of the remainder of the
southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES:  A tornado or two are possible near the immediate east
coast of Florida through tonight.  This risk will shift to along
the immediate coastal Georgia and the coastal Carolinas on Wednesday
into Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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