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Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 35A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...CATEGORY 5 DORIAN CONTINUES TO BATTER GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 78.1W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Lantana to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to south of Lantana
* Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island
* Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
* Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.  For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
by an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA
Doppler radar near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 78.1 West.  Dorian
is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h).  A slower westward to
west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next day or so,
followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest and north.  On this
track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will
continue to pound Grand Bahama Island through much of today and
tonight.  The hurricane will move dangerously close to the Florida
east coast tonight through Wednesday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Dorian is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Slow weakening is forecast, but fluctuations
in intensity could occur during the next couple of days.
Regardless, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during
the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
observations is 916 mb (27.05 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Catastrophic hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama
Island.  Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly
increase after the eye passes.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area
in Florida by late tonight or Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm
warning area today and Tuesday, and are possible in the Tropical
Storm watch area by tonight.

STORM SURGE:  A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island.  Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Water levels
should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands during the day.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Lantana to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River...4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana...2 to 4 ft

The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of
Dorian comes to the Florida east coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
The Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...3 to
6 inches, isolated 9 inches.
Southeastern Virginia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Large swells are affecting east-facing shores of the Bahamas
and the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the
southeastern United States coast during the next few days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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