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HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  53
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052019
1500 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT EAST OF BAR
HARBOR MAINE...TO EASTPORT MAINE.

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF BOGUE
INLET NORTH CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALTER PATH NC TO POQUOSON VA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS
* HAMPTON ROADS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO FENWICK ISLAND DE
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT SOUTHWARD
* TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MA
* NANTUCKET AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD MA
* EAST OF BAR HARBOR TO EASTPORT ME

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* MAGDALEN ISLANDS
* FUNDY NATIONAL PARK TO SHEDIAC
* FRANCOIS TO BOAT HARBOUR

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.  FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE
AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS OF
THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.7N  74.8W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  957 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT.......170NE 190SE 140SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 400SE 270SW  50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.7N  74.8W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.1N  75.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 37.4N  72.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  80SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 140SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 40.7N  67.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  50SE  50SW  30NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  90SW  80NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 150SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 44.9N  63.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  50SE  50SW   0NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 100NW.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 180SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 48.8N  60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 240SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 54.5N  48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 270SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.7N  74.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 06/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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