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HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052019
1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS
AND THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS.

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS.

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM PORT
CANAVERAL...FLORIDA SOUTHWARD.

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE
VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH HAS BEEN CHANGED
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PORT CANAVERAL FL TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO POQUOSON VA...INCLUDING HAMPTON
ROADS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SAVANNAH RIVER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL TO SAVANNAH RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY FL LINE TO SAVANNAH RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT SOUTHWARD

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS
A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE HURRICANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N  79.7W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  964 MB
EYE DIAMETER  55 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT.......100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 210SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N  79.7W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N  79.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 30.8N  80.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE  70SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 31.9N  79.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 33.1N  78.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 34.8N  76.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 39.9N  68.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 180SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 47.5N  59.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 55.0N  46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N  79.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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