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HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052019
0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS FOR THE BAHAMAS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET FL HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM SEBASTIAN INLET FL TO THE
VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY FL LINE IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SEBASTIAN INLET FL TO SURF CITY NC

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NC TO POQUOSON VA...INCLUDING HAMPTON ROADS
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY FL LINE TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL
* NORTH OF SAVANNAH RIVER TO SURF CITY NC

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL TO SAVANNAH RIVER
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NC TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SEBASTIAN INLET...FL TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY FL LINE
* NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL TO SAVANNAH RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT SOUTHWARD

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N  79.5W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT.......100NE  70SE  50SW  90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N  79.5W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N  79.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 30.1N  79.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE  70SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 31.2N  80.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 32.2N  79.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 33.7N  77.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 38.0N  70.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 180SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 45.0N  61.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 53.5N  50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N  79.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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