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HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052019
1500 UTC SAT AUG 31 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANDROS ISLAND

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN.  WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N  73.4W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  945 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE  60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N  73.4W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N  73.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.2N  74.7W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.6N  76.2W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.8N  77.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 27.0N  78.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 28.0N  79.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE  90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 30.5N  80.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 33.5N  78.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N  73.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 31/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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