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TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052019
0300 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH
FOR ST. LUCIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DORIAN AS WATCHES FOR THESE AREAS COULD BE REQUIRED
EARLY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N  59.7W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  45SE  30SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N  59.7W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N  59.2W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.0N  61.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.2N  63.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.5N  65.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.9N  67.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.0N  71.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 24.0N  74.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 26.5N  79.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N  59.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 27/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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