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TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052019
2100 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N  49.1W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N  49.1W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N  48.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 11.0N  50.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 11.4N  52.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 11.9N  54.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.7N  57.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.6N  61.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 16.5N  65.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 18.4N  69.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.7N  49.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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