Hurricane DORIAN (Text)


Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  53
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019

The eye of Dorian made landfall over Cape Hatteras, North Carolina,
at about 1235 UTC and then moved quickly northeastward into the
Atlantic.  A combination of surface observations and Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that the maximum
winds are near 80 kt and the central pressure is near 957 mb.  The
hurricane remains well-organized in satellite imagery, with
the 30 n mi wide eye surrounded by cold convective banding.

The initial motion is now 045/15.  Dorian should accelerate
northeastward during the next 24-36 h as a mid- to upper-level
trough, currently over the U.S. Great Lakes, approaches the system
and accelerates the steering flow.  The track guidance remains
tightly clustered, and the new track forecast is changed little in
either direction or speed from the previous forecast.  The new
forecast calls for Dorian to move away from the North Carolina
coast today, pass well southeast of southern New England tonight
and Saturday, and then move over Nova Scotia Saturday or Saturday
night.  A continued northeastward motion is then expected to bring
the cyclone across Newfoundland into the far north Atlantic.

Dorian is expected to slowly weaken due to increased shear and
entrainment of drier air during the next 24 h or so.  After that
time, the hurricane is expected to undergo extratropical
transition and become a large and powerful post-tropical low.  It is
unclear whether the transition will be complete before Dorian
reaches Nova Scotia.  However, whether Dorian is a hurricane or a
hurricane-force extratropical low, it is expected to bring strong
winds, storm surge, and heavy rains to portions of Nova Scotia and
Newfoundland.  The new NHC intensity forecast is little changed from
the previous forecast, and it follows the trend of the intensity

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds will continue
along portions of the North Carolina coast, portions of southeast
Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay for the next several

2. Areas of flash flooding, some of which may be significant and
life-threatening, will continue into early afternoon across portions
of northeastern North Carolina into far southeast Virginia.

3. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf
of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia
this weekend. Hurricane-force winds are also likely in Nova Scotia,
Prince Edward Island and possibly Newfoundland Saturday and Sunday.
Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more
information on these hazards.


INIT  06/1500Z 35.7N  74.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 37.4N  72.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 40.7N  67.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 44.9N  63.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 48H  08/1200Z 48.8N  60.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  09/1200Z 54.5N  48.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Beven


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 31-Dec-2019 12:09:14 UTC