Hurricane DORIAN (Text)


Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

Data from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes and surface
data nearby Dorian indicate that although the central pressure is a
little bit lower, and NOAA Doppler weather radar data from
Wilmington and Morehead City indicate that winds have decreased as
the circulation of the hurricane expands. The initial intensity is
now estimated to be 85 kt.

Dorian is moving toward higher shear, and gradual weakening is
anticipated.  As indicated in the previous forecast, extratropical
transition should begin in about 48 hours and be complete by 72
hours. However, Dorian is forecast to maintain hurricane-force-winds
while moving near or over Nova Scotia.

The initial motion is 045 degrees at 11 kt. The hurricane is already
embedded in the southwesterly flow ahead of an eastward moving
mid-latitude trough. This flow pattern should steer the hurricane on
a northeastward track with increasing forward speed. Track guidance
continues to be in remarkably good agreement with this solution, and
the NHC forecast remains in the middle of the guidance envelope. The
current forecast track is very similar to the previous advisory.

The center of Dorian is expected to move very near or over the
coastline of eastern North Carolina and the southern Mid-Atlantic
states during the next day or so. Residents of these areas should
already be prepared for damaging winds, life-threatening storm
surges, and flooding rains.  It also appears that Dorian will affect
portions of eastern Canada with hurricane-force winds.

Key Messages:

1. Regardless of the exact track of Dorian's core, life-threatening
storm surge and dangerous winds are expected along portions of the
North Carolina coast, portions of southeast Virginia and the
southern Chesapeake Bay.  Water levels could rise well in advance of
the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow
advice given by local emergency officials.

2. Flash flooding is occurring, and will continue to become more
widespread across the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia
overnight. There is a high risk of flash flooding over these
areas, where significant, life-threatening flash flooding is


INIT  06/0300Z 33.8N  77.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 35.0N  75.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 37.2N  72.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 40.2N  67.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 44.5N  63.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 52.5N  55.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  10/0000Z 57.5N  40.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Avila


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 31-Dec-2019 12:09:14 UTC