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Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 24 2019

The small low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking the
past several days across the tropical Atlantic Ocean has acquired
enough deep convection to be classified as a tropical depression,
the fifth tropical cyclone of the 2019 hurricane season. Two ASCAT
passes between 1200-1300Z this morning indicated that the system
had a closed circulation and surface winds of at least 30 kt, and
that is the intensity set for this advisory. Upper-level outflow
is fair to the northwest and restricted to the southeast due to
moderate easterly vertical wind shear.

The initial motion estimate is 280/10 kt. The NHC model guidance is
in very good agreement that the cyclone will move in a general
west-northwestward direction along the southern periphery of a
deep-layer ridge for the next 5 days, bring the system through the
central or northern Lesser Antilles on Tuesday, and into the
northeastern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and Thursday. The official
forecast track is close to the consensus model TVCN, which is a
little north of the NOAA HCCA corrected-consensus model.

The small cyclone is currently experiencing easterly to
southeasterly shear of about 15 kt. The shear is forecast to
steadily decrease over the next 24 h and be around 5 kt in the
24-to-72-hour time period. Although the depression is expected to
remain embedded in a fairly dry mid-level environment, the small
overall circulation, small radius of maximum winds, low shear
regime, and warm SSTs of 28.0-28.5 deg C should allow for slow but
steady intensification through the 5-day period despite occasional
intrusions of dry air. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the
statistical-dynamical SHIPS and LGEM models, and the more robust
HWRF model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 10.4N  47.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 10.7N  49.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 11.0N  51.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 11.4N  53.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 12.0N  55.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 13.6N  59.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  28/1200Z 15.2N  63.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  29/1200Z 17.1N  66.7W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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