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Tropical Depression CHANTAL (Text)


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Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042019
500 PM AST Thu Aug 22 2019

Chantal is still producing deep convection to the east of the
exposed low-level center.  The initial intensity will be held at
30 kt based on a combination of earlier scatterometer data and
current satellite intensity estimates.  While the cyclone continues
to move toward warmer sea surface temperatures and into an area of
decreasing vertical wind shear, abundant dry air and increasing
upper-level convergence should cause the associated convection to
dissipate in 24 h or so.  There is no change to the previous
intensity forecast, and Chantal is expected to decay to a remnant
low by 36 h and dissipated completely by 96 h.

The initial motion is now 110/12.  A building low- to mid-level
ridge is separating Chantal from the mid-latitude westerlies, and
this should leave the cyclone in an area of weak steering currents.
The track guidance continues to forecast a clockwise loop before the
cyclone dissipates, and the new official forecast track is
basically an update of the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 38.1N  42.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 37.3N  41.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 36.3N  40.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 35.6N  41.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/1800Z 35.5N  41.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/1800Z 37.0N  42.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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Page last modified: Thursday, 05-Dec-2019 12:09:08 UTC