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Tropical Storm CHANTAL (Text)


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Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042019
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 21 2019

Chantal has changed little since last night.  It remains a sheared
tropical cyclone, with the low-level center exposed to the west of
the deep convection.  The current intensity estimate is held at 35
kt based on a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.
Although the shear is forecast to gradually diminish, the system
should remain in an environment of dry air at the low- to
mid-levels for the next several days.  This will likely cause
weakening, and Chantal is forecast to become a depression within 48
hours and degenerate into a remnant low in 3 to 4 days.  The
official intensity forecast is the same as the previous one, and
only slightly below the model consensus.

The motion continues eastward, or 090/17 kt.  Chantal is forecast
to turn clockwise and decelerate around the periphery of a mid-level
anticyclone over the next few days.  Later in the period, the
cyclone is predicted to drift northward.  The official track
forecast is close to the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus, HCCA,
guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 40.2N  51.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 40.0N  48.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 39.2N  44.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 38.1N  42.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  23/1200Z 36.9N  41.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  24/1200Z 35.5N  42.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  25/1200Z 36.0N  43.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  26/1200Z 37.0N  43.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 10-Dec-2019 12:09:08 UTC