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Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO (Text)


ZCZC MIATCMAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022019
0900 UTC THU JUL 11 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO CAMERON
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NORTHWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. GULF COAST FROM THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N  88.2W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N  88.2W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N  88.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.5N  88.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 27.7N  89.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 28.0N  90.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 28.5N  91.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.0N  91.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 33.5N  92.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 36.0N  90.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N  88.2W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 11/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 22-Oct-2019 12:09:05 UTC