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Hurricane Willa Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
1200 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...EYE OF WILLA PASSING NEAR LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO...
...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
COASTS OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 106.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 106.7 West.  Willa is moving
toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h).  A faster motion
toward the northeast is expected by this evening.  On the forecast
track, the center of Willa will approach the coast of west-central
Mexico this afternoon, and make landfall within the hurricane
warning area along the west-central coast of mainland Mexico this
evening.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Willa is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  While gradual weakening is forecast today,
Willa is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it reaches the
coast of Mexico this evening.  Rapid weakening is expected after
landfall tonight and Willa is expected to dissipate over northern
Mexico on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from data from an Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  An extremely dangerous storm surge is likely along
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa
and Nayarit, especially near and to the south of where the center of
Willa makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, southern
Sinaloa, and far southern Durango in Mexico.  This rainfall will
cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1
to 3 inches across the rest of Durango and portions of Zacateca,
southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila, with local amounts to 5 inches
possible.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions will continue over Las Islas Maria
this afternoon, and will spread into the hurricane warning area
along the coast of mainland Mexico within the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward along
the coast of mainland Mexico within the warning area through this
evening.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central mainland
Mexico, and the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula
during the next day or two.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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