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BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
900 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018

...WILLA FORECAST TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND,
AND RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 107.2W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has replaced the Hurricane Watch from San
Blas to Mazatlan with a Hurricane Warning, and has replaced the
Tropical Storm Watch from north of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya
with a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 107.2 West. Willa is moving
toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected overnight and Monday. Willa is expected to
accelerate toward the north-northeast and move over or very near the
Islas Marias on Tuesday and make landfall along the southwestern
coast of mainland Mexico in the hurricane warning area Tuesday
night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Willa is an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional
strengthening is expected overnight and early Monday. While some
weakening is forecast Monday night and Tuesday, Willa is expected to
be a dangerous hurricane when it reaches the coast of Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 941 mb (27.79 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is likely along portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico by Tuesday or Tuesday night,
especially near and to the south of where the center of Willa makes
landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, and southern
Sinaloa in Mexico.  This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of 2
to 4 inches across portions of Zacateca, Durango, southeast
Chihuahua, and Coahuila in Mexico, with local amounts to 6 inches
possible. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by Tuesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the tropical storm warning areas Monday night and Tuesday.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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