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Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Satellite imagery indicates that Vicente continues to lose
organization.  Deep convection has been sporadic and is generally
limited to the east and south of the storm's center.  Unfortunately,
the most recent ASCAT pass missed the center of the system, so we
are unable to verify if Vicente's circulation is still closed.  Due
to Vicente's deteriorating satellite presentation, the initial
intensity has been lowered to 35 kt, which is a blend of Dvorak
Current Intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.  This intensity
estimate may be generous, however.

Although sea-surface temperatures near Vicente are quite warm (29
degrees C), the storm continues to be negatively affected by
northeasterly vertical wind shear.  Moreover, the cyclone's small
size has likely made it more susceptible to shear.  Although the
shear is forecast to weaken slightly over the the next day or so,
the influence of the large circulation of Hurricane Willa and the
interaction with land is likely to cause the storm to dissipate in
24-36 hours, or less. The majority of the dynamical guidance models
dissipate Vicente by tomorrow afternoon and the official forecast
calls for dissipation by 36 h.  It should be noted that, given the
current tenuous state of Vicente, the system could dissipate at any
time.

Vicente's current motion is west-northwestward, or 300/10 kt.  The
system is forecast to turn toward the northwest and north-northwest
while moving between the mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico
and the southeastern portion of the circulation of Willa.  The
official track forecast is a little faster than the previous one
and roughly in the middle of the model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 15.4N 101.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 16.8N 102.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 19.0N 104.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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