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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tara Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222018
100 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...TARA DRIFTING CLOSER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 104.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Manzanillo to Punta San Telmo Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tara was
located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 104.5 West.  Tara is
moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h).  Tara's
future track is highly uncertain.  The system is forecast to move
slowly toward the northwest and then west at a similar speed during
the next couple of days.  Tara's center should pass very close to
the coast of southwestern Mexico, or possibly move inland, today
and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day
or two if Tara's center remains offshore.

Tara is a tiny tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Tara is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through
Tuesday along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco.  These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area today and tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area today and tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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