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Tropical Storm Tara Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222018
700 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...TARA DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 104.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tara was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 104.3 West. Tara is
moving toward the west-northwest at near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so.  A
slightly faster westward motion is forecast to begin after
mid-week. On the forecast track, the center of Tara is expected to
remain near or just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico
during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Tara is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches through
Tuesday along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco.  These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
by tonight or Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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