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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tara Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222018
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...TARA TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF
COLIMA AND JALISCO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 104.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch
between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Manzanillo to Punta San Telmo Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tara was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 104.6 West.  Tara is
moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h).  Tara's future
track is highly uncertain.  The system is forecast to move
slowly toward the northwest and then west at a similar speed during
the next couple of days.  Tara's center should pass very close to
the coast of southwestern Mexico, or possibly move inland, on
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the
next day or two if Tara's center remains offshore.

Tara is a tiny tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Tara is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through
Tuesday along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco.  These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area on Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area overnight through early Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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