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TROPICAL STORM TARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222018
0900 UTC TUE OCT 16 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MANZANILLO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 104.5W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 104.5W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 104.5W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.1N 104.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.5N 105.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.9N 105.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.0N 106.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.0N 106.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 104.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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