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Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number  45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
800 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...SERGIO HEADING FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 123.5W
ABOUT 930 MI...1500 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan
Bautista to San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Sergio.  Additional watches or warnings may be required on Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 123.5 West. Sergio is
moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A northeastward
motion with a further increase in forward speed is expected during
the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will
approach the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday and
then reach mainland Mexico late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce total storm rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with local amounts of 10 inches
across the central portion of the Baja California peninsula and
Sonora. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides within mountainous terrain.

By this weekend, heavy rainfall associated with Sergio will move
into portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks of the United
States. Storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected,
with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the
Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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