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Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
800 AM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018

Sergio appears to have resumed its slow weakening.  Cloud tops on
the western half of the hurricane have warmed, and Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB have decreased.  However, recent
AMSR-2 and SSMIS images indicate that the hurricane still has a
large but well-defined inner-core in the low and mid-levels.  The
initial intensity is set at 70 kt, based on a blend of Final-T and
CI numbers from TAFB and SAB, and the most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON
estimate.

There has been almost no change to the intensity forecast and only
very gradual weakening is forecast during the next 36 to 48 h.
Beyond that time, Sergio will pass over colder SSTs, including the
still-present cold wake of former Hurricane Rosa, and continued
weakening is expected as the cyclone approaches the Baja
California peninsula.  Sergio is therefore still forecast to be a
tropical storm when it reaches the west coast of the Baja California
peninsula in a few days.  Rapid weakening is likely after Sergio
makes its final landfall in northwestern mainland Mexico late this
week, and the cyclone will likely dissipate or become a remnant low
shortly after moving inland.

Virtually no change has been made to the track forecast, which
remains near the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids.  All of the global
and regional models show that Sergio will accelerate generally
northeastward for the next 3 days, approaching the Baja California
peninsula on Friday.  There is still some disagreement among the
models regarding the exact speed of Sergio through that time, but
there is very little cross-track spread.  Confidence in the track
forecast is fairly high.

Moisture associated with the remnants of Sergio is expected to
affect portions of northwestern Mexico, the southwestern United
States, and the U.S. southern plains over the weekend and could
potentially cause heavy rainfall in this region. For more
information about this potential hazard, see products from the
Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 16.6N 127.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 17.1N 126.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 18.1N 124.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 19.7N 122.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 21.7N 119.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  12/1200Z 26.2N 113.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  13/1200Z 31.0N 106.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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