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Tropical Storm ROSA (Text)


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Tropical Storm Rosa Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018
1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018

...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO
THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...
...FLOODING, DEBRIS FLOWS, AND LANDSLIDES POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 117.3W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Rosa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM PDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was
located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 117.3 West.  Rosa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach the central and
northern Baja California peninsula on Monday and then move across
the peninsula into the northern Gulf of California Monday night.
Rosa's remnants are then expected to move across the Desert
Southwest on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast through Monday night
while Rosa approaches and moves over the northern Baja California
peninsula.  Rosa is expected to dissipate over northwestern Mexico
or the southwestern United States by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals
are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding.
Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in
mountainous terrain.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Monday morning.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday or
Monday night.

SURF:  Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN

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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2018 12:11:13 UTC