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BULLETIN
Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018
800 PM PDT Fri Sep 28 2018

...ROSA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 118.0W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern and central Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of Rosa.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 118.0 West. Rosa is moving
toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected overnight, followed by a turn toward the
north-northeast with a slight increase in forward speed by early
next week.  On the forecast track the center of Rosa will be
approaching Baja California on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 72
hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rosa is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 3 to
6 inches from Baja California State into northwest Mexico from late
in the weekend into midweek with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 10 inches.  For the Desert Southwest, amounts of 1 to 3 inches
with local amounts to 6 inches are expected.  This rainfall will
produce life-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the
deserts and landslides in mountainous terrain.

SURF:  Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, the southern Baja California Peninsula, and
southern California late this week and over the weekend.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

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