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Tropical Depression Paul Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018
200 AM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018

Paul's surface circulation continues to be decoupled well to the
east of a rather shapeless convective mass that persists only as a
result of intermittent bursts of deep convection.  The cyclone's
intensity is held at depression strength and is a compromise of the
TAFB and SAB subjective Dvorak estimates.

Within the next 12 hours, Paul will be moving into a stable, drier
air mass and over cooler sea surface temperatures.  This should
support further weakening, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate
into a remnant low in 48 hours, which is indicated in the
large-scale models and the statistical intensity guidance.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/10
kt, within the steering current produced by a mid-level ridge
extending westward over the eastern Pacific from the Baja California
peninsula.  A slow turn westward is forecast in 36 hours as the
weakening cyclone becomes vertically more shallow and is steered by
the low-level easterly tradewind flow.  The official forecast is
again adjusted to the south of the previous package to conform more
with the TVCN multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0900Z 21.9N 123.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 22.2N 124.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  12/0600Z 22.5N 126.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  12/1800Z 22.8N 128.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  13/0600Z 23.0N 129.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  14/0600Z 23.2N 130.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/0600Z 23.2N 132.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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