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Tropical Depression Olivia Discussion Number  51
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP172018
1100 PM HST Wed Sep 12 2018
 
The exposed low-level circulation center (LLCC) of Olivia continues
to track rapidly away from the main Hawaiian Islands this evening. 
A few thunderstorms and towering cumulus clouds continue to pop up
in the northeast quadrant far away from the LLCC, but the coverage
was not great enough to allow any of the fix agencies to classify
Olivia. Therefore, the latest subjective Dvorak current intensity
estimate was 2.0/30 kt from PHFO and JTWC. The UW-CIMSS ADT was also
2.0/30 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity will be lowered to 30 kt
for this advisory. Olivia is expected to remain a tropical
depression through Thursday evening. We continue to indicate it will
become a post-tropical remnant low starting Thursday night or
Friday.
 
Olivia has been able to stabilize its motion now that it has moved 
far away from the mountainous terrain of the main Hawaiian Islands,
which likely caused much of the erratic motion observed earlier
today. The initial motion for this advisory is 255/16 kt. The LLCC
is being steered by the low-level trade wind flow. A general
west-southwest motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is
forecast through early Thursday. Olivia will then turn toward the
west, and then the west-northwest as the system increasingly
interacts with an upper-level low responsible for the wind shear.
The latest track forecast is close to the previous through 36 hours.
After that, the track of the depression, or its remnant low, has
been adjusted to the right of the previous forecast. This is close
to the TVCE and HCCA, and remains near the middle of the guidance
envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/0900Z 20.0N 160.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 19.5N 162.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  14/0600Z 19.4N 165.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  14/1800Z 19.9N 167.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  15/0600Z 20.4N 170.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  16/0600Z 22.5N 175.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Houston
 
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