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Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
200 AM PDT Thu Sep 06 2018

The cloud tops surrounding Olivia's 25 n mi diameter eye have cooled
somewhat over the past several hours, indicative of a little
strengthening.  The initial intensity is increased to 90 kt, which
is a blend of lower subjective Dvorak estimates and higher objective
SATCON and ADT estimates.  Olivia will soon be moving over somewhat
cooler SSTs and into a drier mid-level air mass.  This should lead
to gradual weakening over the next few days.  The official intensity
forecast is very close to the simple and corrected intensity
consensus models, IVCN and HCCA.  Olivia has a fairly large eye
with limited banding features, but the numerical guidance indicates
a low likelihood that the system could become an annular hurricane.
Nonetheless, if that transition were to occur, Olivia would likely
maintain a higher intensity for the next few days than indicated
here.

No significant changes have been made to the NHC track prediction
or forecast reasoning.  Olivia continues moving west-northwestward
or 285/12 kt.  A well-defined deep-layer ridge should remain in
place to the north of the hurricane for the next several days, and
this ridge is expected to build westward during the forecast
period.  As a result, Olivia should gradually turn from its
west-northwestward heading to a westward course by the weekend.
The track guidance models remain in excellent agreement on this
scenario.  The official forecast is close to the dynamical model
consensus and the latest ECMWF prediction.  This is essentially an
update of the previous NHC track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 18.1N 125.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 18.5N 127.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 19.4N 130.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 20.2N 132.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 21.0N 135.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  09/0600Z 21.7N 140.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  10/0600Z 22.0N 145.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  11/0600Z 22.0N 149.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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