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Tropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
200 PM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018

A ragged eye has formed with Olivia during the past several hours,
although the convection on the northern side isn't very persistent.
Microwave data indicate that an eyewall is mostly formed beneath the
central dense overcast, albeit rather thin.  Intensity estimates
continue to rise and support 60 kt for this advisory.

Olivia has a few days remaining over warm waters with light or
moderate shear in the forecast.  Similar to a situation with Hector
about a month ago, the shear might be misdiagnosed in the SHIPS
model, with the bulk of the shear likely coming from northeasterly
winds that avoid the core of the cyclone.  Thus, steady
strengthening is expected, and if the inner core becomes more
established, rapid intensification is a possibility.  The intensity
forecast is raised from the previous one, but remains below the
higher corrected-consensus aids. Olivia should move over more
marginal waters in a few days, and a gradual weakening is indicated
at long range.

Recent fixes show that Olivia is moving westward at about 7 kt.  The
storm should move faster toward the west and eventually toward the
west-northwest during the next several days as it is steered by a
strong ridge over the eastern Pacific Ocean.  This appears to be a
high-confidence forecast since the model spread is fairly small, and
the only adjustment needed to the previous forecast is a slight
southward change at day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 16.6N 115.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 16.7N 116.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 16.8N 118.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 17.0N 120.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 17.5N 123.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 19.0N 128.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 20.7N 133.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  08/1800Z 22.0N 139.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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