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Tropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018
300 AM MDT Mon Sep 03 2018

10 to 15 kt of northeasterly shear, noted by the UW-CIMSS shear
analysis and the Decay SHIPS Intensity model, continues to impede
Olivia's cloud pattern.  A blend of the Dvorak satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB, and an earlier SATCON estimate support
holding the initial intensity at 40 kt.

Only modest short-term strengthening is expected over the next day
or so due to the persistent shear.  Afterwards, a weakening trend
should commence as a result of stronger shear, decreasing sea
surface temperatures, and a less than favorable thermodynamic
environment.  It's worth noting, however, that the Decay SHIPS
indicates a longer, slower intensification period through day 3,
while the better performing IVCN and NOAA-HCCA intensity consensus
guidance reflect a shorter period of intensification, only 24 hours,
followed by a weakening trend through day 5.  Subsequently, these
models no longer indicate that Olivia will become a hurricane, and
neither does the official forecast.  A compromise of the previous
advisory, and a blend of the consensus models was used as a basis
for this advisory.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/6 kt.
Olivia should continue moving westward during the next couple of
days within the mid-level steering flow of a strengthening ridge to
the north.  By day 3, Olivia should turn back toward the
west-northwest as it rounds the southwestern periphery of the
ridge.  Only a minor adjustment to the south of the previous
advisory was made in accord with the various consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 17.1N 114.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 17.2N 115.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 17.3N 116.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 17.5N 118.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 17.9N 120.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 19.1N 124.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  07/0600Z 20.7N 130.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  08/0600Z 22.1N 135.6W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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