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Post-Tropical Cyclone Lane Discussion Number  59
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
500 PM HST Tue Aug 28 2018
 
Visible imagery shows the low level center has become elongated
from northeast to southwest and less tightly wound. Since 2 PM,
some low clouds near the center have dissipated, making the center
hard to locate very precisely. The cold, high clouds northeast of
the center have continued to warm, decrease in area and drift
farther from the center. Subjective Dvorak estimates from HFO and
SAB were 1.5/25 kt. JTWC called the system too weak to classify. The
latest CIMSS ADT was 1.5/25 kt. Lane is now a post-tropical remnant
low. This will be our last set of advisories on the system.
 
Our forecast reasoning remains the same. The circulation around a
low aloft near 21N 171W continues to produce strong southwest
vertical wind shear over Lane. The CIMSS estimate at 0000 UTC was
47.5 kt over Lane. With convection shearing off to the northeast,
the remnant low will continue to weaken. A north-south low-level
trough is deepening near 170W and the global models remain in good
agreement showing a new extratropical surface low forming within the
trough tonight near 30N 170W.
 
Lane is forecast to move north this evening, then curve slightly
toward  the north northwest. That motion is expected to continue
until whatever might be left of Lane is absorbed into the
extratropical low developing to the north.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0300Z 19.5N 168.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  29/1200Z 21.0N 168.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  30/0000Z 23.0N 169.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Donaldson
 
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