ZCZC HFOTCDCP2 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 53 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018 500 AM HST Mon Aug 27 2018 Lane's low-level circulation center had been exposed for the better part of the last 30 hours, as the cyclone remains in an environment characterized by 40 kt of vertical wind shear. However, a recent vigorous convective burst in the eastern semicircle has at least partially obscured the low-level center, and convective banding has increased to the southeast. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates trended up, but were still primarily 2.0/30 kt at the synoptic time, while UW-CIMSS SATCON was near 35 kt. With the improved satellite appearance since then, and since an ASCAT pass detected winds just over 30 kt on Sunday, the initial intensity for this advisory is increased to 35 kt, and Lane is once again a tropical storm. The initial motion for this advisory is 270/7 kt, with Lane being driven westward by a surface high to the distant northeast. This motion will continue in the short-term, with Lane's forward motion expected to diminish tonight as it reaches the southwestern edge of the high. At the same time, increased interaction with an amplifying mid-level low will likely lead to a deepening shear profile, with the strong shear currently in the upper-levels spreading to the mid-levels. This should be more effective in interrupting Lane's low-level core, and Lane is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low by Tuesday. Lane is forecast to become an extratropical low later Tuesday into Wednesday as it gets wrapped up into the circulation associated with the mid-level low. This extratropical low could then bring gale force winds to portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument as it tracks north and northwest. The updated track forecast has been shifted to the left of the previous, especially in the later periods, to be better in line with GFEX. The intensity forecast represents a blend of regional and global model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 18.9N 165.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 19.0N 166.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 19.6N 167.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/0000Z 21.0N 168.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1200Z 23.2N 169.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 30/1200Z 29.0N 174.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/1200Z 32.0N 177.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/1200Z 34.6N 180.0E 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Birchard NNNN
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