ZCZC HFOTCDCP2 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Tropical Depression Lane Discussion Number 50 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 26 2018 The low-level circulation center of Lane remains exposed with bursts of deep convection continuing to pulse in the northeast quadrant. The once powerful cyclone is in the process of becoming a post-tropical remnant low, as it remains embedded in a hostile environment, with vertical wind shear of around 40 knots impacting the system. The initial intensity for this advisory remains at 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak intensity estimates. Based on an overnight ASCAT pass, these winds are mainly in the northern semicircle of the circulation. The initial motion for this advisory is 270/9 kt. A surface high to the distant northeast will keep Lane moving generally toward the west into Monday as it devolves into a post-tropical remnant low later today or tonight. Once Lane becomes post-tropical, redevelopment into a tropical cyclone is highly unlikely. A brief slowing in forward speed is expected Monday night as the remnant low reaches the southwestern edge of the high and begins to interact with a developing mid-level low to its west. Assuming Lane survives as a coherent feature until then, this interaction is expected to lead to the development of an extratropical low by Tuesday or Wednesday. This low could bring gale force winds to portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument as it tracks north and northwest around the middle of the week. The latest official forecast track is close to the TVCE consensus while the intensity forecast is supported by global model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 19.1N 163.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 18.9N 164.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 19.0N 166.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/0600Z 19.4N 167.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/1800Z 20.4N 167.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1800Z 25.0N 169.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 30/1800Z 30.6N 174.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 31/1800Z 34.0N 179.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Burke NNNN
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