Tropical Depression LANE (Text)

Tropical Depression Lane Discussion Number  50
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
1100 AM HST Sun Aug 26 2018
The low-level circulation center of Lane remains exposed with
bursts of deep convection continuing to pulse in the northeast
quadrant. The once powerful cyclone is in the process of becoming a
post-tropical remnant low, as it remains embedded in a hostile
environment, with vertical wind shear of around 40 knots impacting
the system. The initial intensity for this advisory remains at 30 kt
based on the latest Dvorak intensity estimates. Based on an
overnight ASCAT pass, these winds are mainly in the northern
semicircle of the circulation.
The initial motion for this advisory is 270/9 kt. A surface high to
the distant northeast will keep Lane moving generally toward the
west into Monday as it devolves into a post-tropical remnant low 
later today or tonight. Once Lane becomes post-tropical,
redevelopment into a tropical cyclone is highly unlikely. A brief
slowing in forward speed is expected Monday night as the remnant
low reaches the southwestern edge of the high and begins to
interact with a developing mid-level low to its west. Assuming Lane
survives as a coherent feature until then, this interaction is
expected to lead to the development of an extratropical low by
Tuesday or Wednesday. This low could bring gale force winds to
portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument as it
tracks north and northwest around the middle of the week. The latest
official forecast track is close to the TVCE consensus while the
intensity forecast is supported by global model guidance.
INIT  26/2100Z 19.1N 163.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 18.9N 164.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 19.0N 166.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  28/0600Z 19.4N 167.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  28/1800Z 20.4N 167.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  29/1800Z 25.0N 169.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  30/1800Z 30.6N 174.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  31/1800Z 34.0N 179.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Forecaster Burke

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Page last modified: Thursday, 08-Aug-2019 14:23:35 UTC