ZCZC HFOTCDCP2 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 47 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018 500 PM HST Sat Aug 25 2018 The low level circulation center of Lane is exposed in visible satellite imagery with bursts of deep convection continuing to pulse east of the low level center. Based on the latest Dvorak fixes and the latest satellite representation of Lane, we have maintained the initial intensity at 45 knots with this advisory. Wind radii were decreased slightly based on a recent ASCAT pass which captured the eastern side of the circulation. Strong westerly shear of 30 to 40 kt continues to impact lane. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next couple of days due to this strong shear persisting. This follows closely with ICON and SHIPS guidance. Lane is forecast to weaken to a depression in about 36 hours and to a remnant low by 72 hours. Assuming this low survives, it may eventually become an extratropical gale low in the vicinity of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands around days 4 and 5. The latest motion for this advisory is 270/8 knots. A slight increase in forward is expected over the next couple of days as the low level center remains embedded in the trades south of an area of high pressure north of Hawaii. By day 3, a turn to the northwest is expected the the system rounds the southwest side of the high. The current track forecast has been nudged to the left through 48 hours, with little change from days 3 through 5. This forecast closely follows the HWRF, and lies close to the consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 19.5N 160.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 19.4N 161.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 19.2N 163.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 19.1N 164.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 19.6N 166.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 22.5N 168.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 26.6N 170.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 31/0000Z 31.4N 175.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Burke NNNN
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