ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018 John has resumed its gradual weakening. Cloud tops near the center of the tropical storm have warmed, and several recent microwave overpasses indicate that deep convection is still primarily limited to the northern and western semicircles. The intensity has been lowered to 55 kt based on a the latest Dvorak CI estimates from TAFB and SAB, and it is possible this is generous. No change has been made to the intensity forecast, and continued steady weakening should continue for the next day or two. The most recent dynamical guidance indicates that John is likely to become a remnant low around 36 h, so the forecast conservatively shows the system maintaining tropical cyclone status through that time. Once it becomes a remnant low, the cyclone will gradually spin down until dissipating early next week. The tropical storm has made a left-of-track jog over the past few hours, and the initial motion estimate is now 290/13 kt. Due to this shift, the track forecast has been adjusted west and south through the entire forecast period. That said, there has been no other significant change to the forecast reasoning or track guidance. The cyclone should continue moving west-northwestward around a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. for the next day or two. After becoming post-tropical, the remnant circulation of John is forecast to begin drifting slowly within an area of weak low-level steering flow. The new NHC forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus TVCN throughout the forecast period. Large swells associated with John are already affecting portions of the coast of the Baja California peninsula and are forecast to spread northward and reach portions of the southern California coast by tonight. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 24.8N 118.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 25.5N 120.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 26.4N 122.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 27.1N 123.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 27.7N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1800Z 28.5N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1800Z 29.0N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky NNNN
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