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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018
1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018

Latest visible satellite images indicate that the tropical cyclone
is gradually becoming better organized.  The center is estimated to
be on the northern side of a small circular area of deep
convection, with a developing band of convection over the southern
semicircle of the circulation.  The initial intensity is set at 30
kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and
SAB.

Since the center is still not easy to locate, the initial motion is
a rather uncertain 290/10 kt.  The primary steering mechanisms for
the system are a mid-level ridge to the north and a developing
cyclone to the west.  It is not clear just how much interaction
will occur between the two cyclones, and it is likely that some
of the model vortex tracks are not representative in the 2-3 day
time frame.  The forecast track is somewhat north of the previous
one but near the southern side of the guidance envelope.  This is
close to the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach, HCCA, track.

The GFS and ECMWF global model predictions indicate that the
circulation to the west of Eleven-E will become dominant.  In
fact, the GFS indicates that this circulation will absorb the
tropical cyclone within a day or so.  The ECMWF indicates that this
absorption will occur several days later, and the official forecast
calls for dissipation in 3-4 days.  If the western circulation does
not become the dominant system, then Eleven-E could strengthen more
than indicated here, as shown by some of the other guidance.

Interest along the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system, given the uncertainties
in the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 13.5N  97.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 14.1N  98.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 15.3N 100.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 16.9N 103.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 18.3N 106.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 20.5N 112.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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