Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E (Text)


Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018
400 AM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018

Convection associated with the depression has increased through the
early morning, but the system still appears to be sheared from the
north. A pair of ASCAT passes between 03Z and 04Z revealed that the
center of the depression is elongated and has reformed to the south,
closer to the convection. The maximum believable winds in the ASCAT
data were around 30 kt, and the initial intensity has been set at
that value.

Little change has been made to the track or intensity forecast,
however confidence is low. The global and regional dynamical models
all forecast that a disturbance to the west will develop later today
and quickly become the dominant cyclone. This should cause the
depression to dissipate as it becomes entangled in the other
system's larger circulation. However, there is little agreement
among the models as to when or where this will occur. On one hand,
the GFS continues to insist that the depression will dissipate later
this morning, while the UKMET shows two distinct cyclones through 96
hours. Further complicating matters, the close proximity of the two
cyclones is affecting the trackers used to obtain track and
intensity information from the dynamical models, and most of the
dynamical tracker output can not be considered representative,
especially at 48 h and beyond.

Assuming the depression persists for at least a couple more days,
the ECMWF and HWRF models appear to be the best compromise
solutions, with both showing the depression accelerating
northwestward between the disturbance to the west and a mid-level
ridge to the east, before dissipating in 48-72 h. The NHC track
forecast therefore leans most heavily on a blend of these models
and the previous forecast track. The intensity forecast is based
primarily on the statistical models, since the dynamical tracker
output appears to be unrepresentative of the actual forecasts.
Although the official forecast conservatively maintains the
depression for 72 h, the cyclone could dissipate much sooner than
currently indicated.

Based on the forecast, any tropical-storm-force winds are expected
to remain offshore the coast of Mexico.  However, given the low
confidence in both the track and intensity of the depression,
interests along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico should
monitor its progress in case the track shifts closer to the coast or
the cyclone strengthens and grows larger than forecast.


INIT  05/0900Z 13.0N  96.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 13.5N  98.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 14.6N 100.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 16.0N 103.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z 17.5N 105.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  08/0600Z 20.0N 111.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Zelinsky


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2018 12:10:39 UTC