ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 51 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP102018 500 PM HST Sun Aug 12 2018 Hector continues to weaken this afternoon due to south-southwesterly shear of around 10 kt over the system as analyzed by the latest UW-CIMSS shear analysis. The low level circulation center in visible satellite imagery remains on the south side of the deepest convection. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were 3.5 (55 knots) from PHFO, SAB, and JTWC. The satellite presentation clearly shows that slow weakening is ongoing, but given the persistent deep convection near the low level circulation center and necessary spin down time needed as these systems weaken, will only lower the initial intensity to 60 knots with this advisory. The initial motion is set at 300/15 knots. The latest model guidance remains tightly clustered through 72 hours, with the spread in the track guidance increasing at 96 and 120 hours. Hector is expected to continue on a west-northwest track tonight on the eastern periphery of an upper level low to the west of the International Date Line. The system is expected to make a turn to a more westerly direction on Monday, and continue on this course through Wednesday as an upper level ridge builds north of the system. A turn toward the northwest and eventually north is then expected Wednesday night through Friday as Hector rounds the southwest periphery of the upper level ridge. The new official forecast track is very close to the consensus guidance as well as the track from the previous advisory. The intensity forecast calls for slow weakening of Hector over the next 12 to 24 hours as the system will remain in southwesterly shear of 10 to 15 kt. The shear is forecast to decrease beyond 24 hours, but the system will likely have weakened by this time and will be moving over cooler sea surface temperatures. The intensity guidance is in fairly good agreement through 36 hours, so confidence during this portion of the forecast is fairly good. Most of the intensity guidance levels off during the 36 through 48 hour time frame while SHIPS guidance and AVNI indicating some strengthening. This seems rather aggressive given the state the hurricane is in at the moment. As a result, the official intensity forecast calls for slow weakening through Monday afternoon. Beyond 24 hours the forecast intensity has been held steady through 48 hours, with slow weakening expected at the end of the forecast period due to increasing shear and cooler sea surface temperatures. Hector is forecast to transition over to an extratropical system in about 96 hours. Probabilities for tropical storm force winds reaching the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands have decreased since the previous advisory. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Kure Atoll and Midway Atoll. The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued for the waters between Midway Atoll and Pearl and Hermes Atoll. If Hector remains on its forecast track to the west-northwest, the Tropical Storm Watches currently in effect may be canceled later tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 24.6N 177.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 25.6N 179.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 26.7N 177.6E 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 27.8N 174.5E 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 28.8N 171.4E 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 31.5N 165.8E 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 35.1N 162.7E 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 18/0000Z 39.8N 162.8E 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Burke NNNN
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