ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 46 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP102018 1100 AM HST Sat Aug 11 2018 Satellite loop shows Hector is feeling the effects of southerly vertical shear, with the outflow pattern becoming quite asymmetric outside the immediate eyewall. After briefly clouding over, a rather murky eye has re-emerged within the past hour or so. Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates range from 5.0/90 kt (PHFO,SAB), to 5.5/102 kt (JTWC). ADT from UW-CIMSS is 98 kt. Based on a blend of these numbers, the initial intensity for this advisory is set at 95 kt. The initial motion for Hector is set at 310/12 kt. This represents the beginning of this system's turn to the northwest which was expected by the end of the day. The steering environment is characterized by a mid-level ridge to the northeast of Hector and a mid- to upper-level low to the northwest. As the ridge remains stationary and the low becomes better developed, we expect an increase in forward speed as well as a continued northwest motion. By Monday, the ridge will build to the north of Hector, inducing a slight turn toward the west that will persist until the end of the forecast period, at which time Hector is expected to make a turn back toward the northwest. Given the slightly early turn to the northwest this morning, the updated track was nudged slightly to the right through 24 hours, then nudged slightly to the left after 48 hours to stay within the guidance envelope. Southerly shear is expected to increase into the 25 to 30 kt range through 24 hours, according to SHIPS, prompting us to maintain the fairly rapid weakening trend through that time. After that, shear is forecast to decrease, but SSTs are forecast to steadily decrease as well. SHIPS wants to keep Hector at hurricane strength through 120 hours, while HWRF briefly weakens Hector to tropical storm strengh at 36 hours. In contrast, global models want to significantly weaken Hector almost to dissipation by 120 hours. The official forecast lies between these two, describing a fairly rapid weakening of this system through 24 hours, followed by more gradual weakening afterwards. Given the close approach to the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands Hector is forecast to make on Sunday and Monday, a Tropical Storm Watch remains posted for the area from Lisianski Island to Pearl and Hermes Atoll. Interests on Midway and Kure Atolls should continue to monitor the progress of Hector. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 20.1N 170.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 21.2N 172.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 22.9N 174.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 24.2N 177.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 25.2N 179.6E 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 27.2N 173.7E 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 29.4N 167.6E 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 33.8N 162.8E 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Powell NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 08-Aug-2019 14:21:23 UTC