ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 40 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP102018 1100 PM HST Thu Aug 09 2018 Hector continues to be a very impressive hurricane this evening. The distinct eye has warmed, while the cloud top temperatures in the surrounding eyewall have cooled. As a result, all of the satellite fix agencies (PHFO, SAB and JTWC) provided subjective Dvorak intensity estimates of T6.0/115 kt. In addition, the UW/CIMSS ADT increased to T6.0/115 kt. Based on all of this guidance, the initial intensity has been increased to 115 kt. Hector's latest movement is 280/14 kt. The hurricane continues to move just north of due west to the south of a mid-level ridge. The western end of the ridge is forecast to weaken as a low pressure system develops near the International Dateline during the next day or two. This is expected to result in a gradual turn toward the west-northwest on Friday, followed by a more northwestward track from Friday night through this weekend. The forecast mostly follows the previous advisory package though 48 hours. After that, the latest forecast track was shifted slightly north from days 3 through 5. These subtle changes in the track were due to nudging toward the HWRF, as well as the consensus models, such as TVCN and GFEX. The latest intensity forecast, which is close to the previous forecast beyond 12 hours, indicates additional slight intensification through Friday morning. After that, we are expecting gradual weakening from late Friday through Saturday evening. The weakening trend is more significant beyond 48 hours as Hector moves into an area of increasing vertical wind shear, as well as cooler water temperatures. The current intensity forecast is also in line with HWRF, HMON, and CTC2, which have verified the best so far. These models also show a faster weakening after 48 hours, but the forecast shows a more conservative weakening trend for now. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Johnston Island. If the expected turn toward the west-northwest does not occur, tropical storm conditions are possible there starting late Friday. Elsewhere, interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, including Midway and Kure Atolls and the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument west of French Frigate Shoals should monitor the progress of Hector. Based on the latest forecast, Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches may be needed for these islands by late Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 17.4N 164.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 17.9N 166.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 18.9N 168.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 20.3N 170.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 22.4N 172.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 26.5N 177.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 30.5N 177.5E 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 33.5N 174.5E 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Houston NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 08-Aug-2019 14:21:23 UTC