Hurricane HECTOR (Text)

Hurricane Hector Discussion Number  33
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP102018
500 AM HST Wed Aug 08 2018
Hurricane Hector has been showing some signs of weakening overnight.
The eye is somewhat less distinct in infrared satellite imagery
early this morning, but it appears that Hector remains a powerful
system based on data provided by a reconnaissance aircraft from the
U.S. Air Force Reserve 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron. The
extensive sampling of the cyclone during this mission indicated
surface winds were up to 108 kt. In addition, they sampled
flight-level winds up to 135 kt at 1037z during their final pass
through Hector. All of the satellite fix agencies (PHFO, JTWC, and
SAB) showed current subjective Dvorak intensity estimates of 6.0/115
kt. The latest CIMSS ADT estimate is 5.0/102 kt. For this advisory
we will use a blend of these intensity estimates, and maintain
Hector at 110 kt. Hector continues to move due west, or 270/14 kt.
Only minor adjustments to the forecast track have been made. Hector
will continue to move westward along the southern periphery of a
strong subtropical ridge to the north of the main Hawaiian Island
chain through Thursday night. Starting around day 3, Hector is
expected to begin gradually gaining latitude as it passes around the
southwestern edge of this ridge, and is under increasing influence
from an upper-level trough to the west of longitude 170W. This
motion will likely persist through days 4 and 5.
Hector remains in a relatively low shear environment, but it is
moving across marginally warm sea surface temperatures. This is
expected to cause a gradual weakening trend during the next day or
so. Afterward, Hector is expected to change little in intensity
through day 3. The official forecast continues to show a weakening
trend for days 4 and 5 as it starts to gain latitude and it moves
over slightly cooler water temperatures. The latest intensity
forecast closely follows the ICON guidance, which shows Hector
remaining stronger than the SHIPS guidance indicates.
INIT  08/1500Z 16.4N 153.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 16.5N 156.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 16.6N 159.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 16.8N 162.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 17.1N 165.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 18.3N 170.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  12/1200Z 20.5N 175.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  13/1200Z 23.0N 179.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
Forecaster Houston

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Page last modified: Thursday, 08-Aug-2019 14:21:23 UTC