ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 33 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP102018 500 AM HST Wed Aug 08 2018 Hurricane Hector has been showing some signs of weakening overnight. The eye is somewhat less distinct in infrared satellite imagery early this morning, but it appears that Hector remains a powerful system based on data provided by a reconnaissance aircraft from the U.S. Air Force Reserve 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron. The extensive sampling of the cyclone during this mission indicated surface winds were up to 108 kt. In addition, they sampled flight-level winds up to 135 kt at 1037z during their final pass through Hector. All of the satellite fix agencies (PHFO, JTWC, and SAB) showed current subjective Dvorak intensity estimates of 6.0/115 kt. The latest CIMSS ADT estimate is 5.0/102 kt. For this advisory we will use a blend of these intensity estimates, and maintain Hector at 110 kt. Hector continues to move due west, or 270/14 kt. Only minor adjustments to the forecast track have been made. Hector will continue to move westward along the southern periphery of a strong subtropical ridge to the north of the main Hawaiian Island chain through Thursday night. Starting around day 3, Hector is expected to begin gradually gaining latitude as it passes around the southwestern edge of this ridge, and is under increasing influence from an upper-level trough to the west of longitude 170W. This motion will likely persist through days 4 and 5. Hector remains in a relatively low shear environment, but it is moving across marginally warm sea surface temperatures. This is expected to cause a gradual weakening trend during the next day or so. Afterward, Hector is expected to change little in intensity through day 3. The official forecast continues to show a weakening trend for days 4 and 5 as it starts to gain latitude and it moves over slightly cooler water temperatures. The latest intensity forecast closely follows the ICON guidance, which shows Hector remaining stronger than the SHIPS guidance indicates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 16.4N 153.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 16.5N 156.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 16.6N 159.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 16.8N 162.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 17.1N 165.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 18.3N 170.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 20.5N 175.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 13/1200Z 23.0N 179.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Houston NNNN
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