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Hurricane Hector Discussion Number  32
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP102018
1100 PM HST Tue Aug 07 2018
 
Hurricane Hector continues to have an impressive appearance in
infrared satellite this evening. However, there are some signs of
weakening as the eye has become somewhat less distinct. A
reconnaissance aircraft from the U.S. Air Force Reserve 53rd Weather
Reconnaissance Squadron continues to send valuable data from Hector.
The peak surface wind found by the aircraft was 108 kt. In addition,
the central pressure had filled to 956 mb during the most recent
pass through the center. Based on these observations, we have
weakened the hurricane to 110 kt for this advisory. Data from this
aircraft also confirm that Hector has turned more westward. The 
long term motion is now 275/14 kt. 

The track philosophy has not changed, so the adjustments to the
previous forecast have been minor through the next 2 days. After 48
hours, Hector is expected to begin gradually gaining latitude as it
passes around the southwestern edge of an anticyclone, and is
under increasing influence from an upper-level trough to the west of
longitude 170W.
 
Hector remains in a low shear environment, but it is moving across
marginally warm sea surface temperatures. This is expected to cause
a gradual weakening trend during the next day or so. Afterward, the
low-shear environment continues, but water temperatures gradually
warm, which may allow Hector to restrengthen a bit. Toward the end
of the forecast period, increasing wind shear may start to affect
the hurricane, and the official forecast continues to show a
weakening trend. The overall confidence in the intensity forecast is
somewhat low due to these competing factors. The latest intensity
forecast continues to closely follow the ICON guidance, which shows
Hector remaining stronger than the SHIPS guidance indicates.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0900Z 16.5N 152.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 16.7N 154.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 16.8N 157.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  09/1800Z 16.9N 160.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  10/0600Z 17.2N 163.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  11/0600Z 18.0N 169.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  12/0600Z 20.0N 173.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  13/0600Z 22.5N 178.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Houston
 
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