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Hurricane Hector Discussion Number  27
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP102018
500 PM HST Mon Aug 06 2018
 
Hector has shown little change in satellite imagery today and
remains very impressive. Continuous bursts of lightning have been
occurring within the eyewall, and the hurricane is maintaining an
annular structure. Fixes from HFO, SAB, and JTWC came in at 6.5/127
kt again, and CIMSS ADT yielded 132 kt. Given what was sampled by
morning reconnaissance aircraft and the lack of significant change
in the satellite presentation, the initial intensity will be held at
135 kt. Unfortunately, the US Air Force Reserve 53rd Weather
Reconnaissance Squadron had to cut its mission short this morning,
but the next mission will occur this evening around 0530 UTC.

The initial motion of Hector is toward the west-northwest (285
degrees) at 14 kt. Hector took on a slight northward drift today as
the deep ridge to the north weakened. The ridge will move to the
north of Hawaii on Tuesday, which should cause Hector to resume a
motion toward due west and take the hurricane just south of the
Hawaiian Islands on Wednesday. As a result, a Tropical Storm
Watch remains in effect for the Big Island of Hawaii. Aside from a
slight adjustment to the north, little change was made to the track
forecast. The forecast lies down the middle of a fairly tightly
clustered guidance suite during the next 72 hours and runs near to
just north of the TVCN. On days four and five, a gradual turn toward
the west-northwest is expected as the deep ridge to the north
weakens.

Hector is expected to remain a major hurricane during the next
couple of days. The system is in a low vertical wind shear
environment, and with nearby sea surface temperatures just over 27C,
Hector is near its maximum potential intensity according the SHIPS
guidance. There will be only minor fluctuations in sea surface
temperature during the next 72 hours and continued low vertical
wind shear, though models indicate mid level dry air affecting the
hurricane. So far, this has not had much of an effect on Hector,
leading to lower confidence in the intensity forecast. The forecast
rate of weakening was decreased with this advisory and is line with
the dynamical models, while keeping Hector stronger than SHIPS and
LGEM during the next 72 hours. Thereafter, little change in
intensity is expected as sea surface temperatures increase along the
track.

 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0300Z 15.7N 144.7W  135 KT 155 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 16.1N 146.9W  130 KT 150 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 16.4N 149.7W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 16.6N 152.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 16.7N 155.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z 16.9N 161.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  11/0000Z 17.3N 167.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  12/0000Z 18.5N 172.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Wroe
 
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