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Hurricane Hector Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018
200 AM PDT Fri Aug 03 2018

Although Hector appeared to be disrupted by moderate northeasterly
shear earlier this evening, its satellite presentation is generally
back on the upswing. A WindSat pass around 0213 UTC revealed that
the tiny mid-level eye of the hurricane was still intact, and this
feature has at times been apparent once again in longwave and
shortwave IR imagery. The initial intensity has been set at 90 kt
based on the Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB.

Even though the shear no longer appears to be a significant
inhibiting factor, marginal sea surface temperatures and mid-level
humidity could still be limiting factors for the intensity of
Hector. All of the intensity guidance indicates that little change
in intensity will occur over the next 24-36 hours, so only gradual
strengthening is forecast. By days 2 and 3, the hurricane will be
moving over warmer waters once again, so some additional
strengthening seems likely at that time. This scenario is supported
by the dynamical intensity models, all of which depict Hector as a
strong major hurricane. The statistical guidance notably shows
gradual weakening during this period, so confidence in this part of
the forecast is low. By 96 h, Hector is expected to move over
cooler SSTs and into a drier environment, so steady weakening is
forecast. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory and still favors the dynamical model solutions.

The initial motion is now 270/10 kt.  No significant changes have
been made to the track forecast. Hector is expected to be steered
westward by a large subtropical ridge for the next few days. A turn
toward the west-northwest is anticipated early next week as a large
deep-layer trough over the northern Pacific weakens the ridge. There
is still a large amount of spread in the global models regarding the
forward speed of Hector as it begins to turn west-northwestward.
Despite the large spread, the consensus has not changed much, so the
new NHC track forecast lies practically on top of the previous
forecast, and remains close to the consensus aids HCCA and FSSE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 14.0N 127.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 14.0N 129.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 14.0N 131.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 14.0N 133.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 13.9N 135.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 14.5N 140.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  07/0600Z 15.5N 145.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  08/0600Z 16.5N 150.5W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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