Tropical Storm HECTOR (Text)


Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018
800 PM PDT Wed Aug 01 2018

Visible satellite imagery continues to show an increase in banding
in association with Hector, and the last several images suggest
that a small CDO may be developing.  Recent microwave data,
however, has not shown any significant improvement of the inner
core.  The latest Dvorak satellite estimates are 45 kt from SAB
and 55 kt from TAFB, while AMSU and objective UW/CIMSS Dvorak
estimates are in between.  As a result, the initial wind speed has
been increased to 50 kt.  An increase in northeasterly shear by
tomorrow is expected to temporarily halt the intensification
process.  However, the shear is expected to decrease after 48 hours,
which should allow for strengthening later in the period while
Hector remains over warm water.  There is still a large spread in
the intensity guidance by day 4, with the ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance
showing an intensity of around 65 kt, while the HWRF and COAMPS-TC
model bring Hector to category 4 strength.  Given the large
divergence in the intensity guidance at the long range, the NHC
forecast remains close to the consensus aids.

Hector continues to move westward at around 10 kt.  There has been
no significant change to the track forecast reasoning.  Hector
should move generally westward to the south of a strong subtropical
ridge through Friday.  The ridge is forecast to build westward by
the weekend which is expected to impart a west-southwestward motion
through the remainder of the forecast period.  The overall track
guidance envelope has not changed since the previous advisory and
the NHC track forecast is near the middle of the envelope.  The
latest NHC track prediction is very close to the previous NHC


INIT  02/0300Z 14.0N 122.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 14.3N 124.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 14.4N 126.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 14.5N 128.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 14.5N 131.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 14.0N 135.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  06/0000Z 13.5N 140.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 13.8N 145.0W   90 KT 105 MPH

Forecaster Brown


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2018 12:10:37 UTC