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Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018
200 PM PDT Wed Aug 01 2018

Hector continues to become better organized.  Microwave data
indicate that the low- and mid-level centers are now closer
together, and visible satellite imagery is showing more curved
banding features.  Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB and the CIMSS
ADT are all 45 kt, so that will be the initial intensity.  Hector
should continue to intensify for the next day or so in a favorable
environment of light-to-moderate shear and warm SSTs.  However, a
surge of northeasterly upper-level flow is forecast to impact the
cyclone on Thursday, which will likely arrest the strengthening
trend.  This stronger flow should abate late Friday or Saturday,
leading to further intensification.  The latest forecast is below
the consensus at shorter range, then above the consensus at long
range. There remains the potential that the intensity forecast is
too low at days 4 and 5, but the model guidance is too divergent
with the upper-level environment at that time to have confidence in
raising the forecast.

Scatterometer and microwave data are showing the system moving
westward at 10 kt. Hector should continue moving westward overnight
and then even move a little south-of-west for the next few days
as the subtropical ridge builds to the north and west of the
cyclone.  The biggest change from 6 hours ago is that the guidance
is faster at long range due to the tropical cyclone staying
separate from an upper-level trough in the northwestward part of
the eastern Pacific.  The latest NHC forecast follows the speedier
trend of the guidance, but is not as fast as the ECMWF or UKMET
models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 13.8N 121.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 14.1N 122.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 14.4N 125.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 14.5N 127.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 14.5N 129.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 14.1N 134.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 13.5N 139.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  06/1800Z 13.5N 143.5W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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