Tropical Storm HECTOR (Text)


Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 01 2018

Satellite images indicate that Hector is on a strengthening trend,
with a large area of convection near and west of the apparent
center. The latest microwave data, a 1159Z F-16 pass, also show the
beginnings of an inner core in the 91-Ghz channels. The system has
some tilt, however, with suggestions from the microwave pass that
the low- and mid-level centers are not well aligned.  The latest
intensity estimates from TAFB/SAB are 45 kt, but I've elected to
only raise the wind speed to 40 kt due to uncertainty in the initial
position and the microwave tilt.

Hector is forecast to remain over warm water, with light-to-
moderate shear and somewhat dry mid-level moisture for the
next several days.  In 12 to 24 hours, northeasterly shear is
forecast to increase near Hector, which should slow the
intensification rate.  Thus the official forecast shows
strengthening at less than a climatological rate for the next
few days.  At long range, some of model guidance suggest the
upper-level environment could become very favorable, with the
HWRF/HMON now showing Hector at category 4 strength in the central
Pacific Ocean.  I would prefer to see more consistency from these
models before showing such a large increase, but the new forecast is
raised from the previous one and is higher than the model consensus.

The storm is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt.  Hector should
turn to the west tomorrow and even move a little south-of-west for
the next few days thereafter as the subtropical ridge builds to the
north and west of the cyclone.  The largest uncertainty is the
location of Hector in a few days as an inverted upper-level trough
forms to the north or northeast of the cyclone.  For now there is
enough separation of Hector and this trough to prevent the cyclone
from gaining much latitude.   While the model guidance doesn't show
a lot of spread for now, and the new forecast is close to the
previous one, it is worth keeping an eye on the trough to make sure
it stays separate from Hector at long range.


INIT  01/1500Z 13.8N 120.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 14.2N 122.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 14.5N 124.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 14.6N 126.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 14.5N 128.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 14.4N 133.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 13.9N 138.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 13.7N 142.0W   90 KT 105 MPH

Forecaster Blake


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2018 12:10:37 UTC