Tropical Storm HECTOR (Text)


Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018
800 PM PDT Tue Jul 31 2018

Deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone has continued
to become better organized since the previous advisory with an
increase in banding over the western and southern portions of the
circulation.  As a result, satellite intensity estimates have
increased to T2.5 on the Dvorak scale, so the initial wind speed has
been increased to 35 kt.  Hector becomes the eighth named storm of
the 2018 eastern North Pacific hurricane season.

Hector is forecast to traverse warm SSTs and remain within a
favorable upper-level wind pattern during the next day or so which
should result in steady strengthening.  Some moderate northeasterly
shear could temper the rate of intensification in 36-48 h, but the
intensity guidance is generally more aggressive this cycle.  The
NHC intensity forecast calls for a faster rate of strengthening
early in the forecast period, and brings Hector to hurricane status
in a couple of days, which is in line with most of the intensity
guidance.  The updated official forecast also indicates a slightly
higher peak intensity, but it is not as high as the dynamical model
guidance and the ICON intensity consensus model in deference to the
previous NHC advisory.

Recent satellite fixes indicate that Hector is moving west-
northwestward or 285/12 kt.  A strong deep-layer ridge to the
north of the tropical storm is expected to keep the system on a
generally west-northwestward to westward motion throughout the
forecast period.  The track guidance is in good agreement on this
scenario, but there are some differences in the predicted forward
speed of the cyclone.  The ECMWF depicts a faster westward motion
while the GFS, GFS ensemble mean, and HWRF show a somewhat slower
speed.  The new NHC track forecast is a little faster than the
previous official forecast, but is slower than most of the
consensus aids.


INIT  01/0300Z 13.0N 118.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 13.4N 119.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 13.8N 122.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 13.9N 124.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 13.9N 126.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 13.8N 130.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 13.7N 134.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 13.7N 138.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

Forecaster Brown


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2018 12:10:37 UTC