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Post-Tropical Cyclone GILMA (Text)


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Post-Tropical Cyclone Gilma Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082018
200 PM PDT Sun Jul 29 2018

Gilma has lacked organized deep convection near the center for at
least 12 hours now.  Although there has been a cluster of
thunderstorms lingering about 90 n mi southeast of the exposed
center, this convection has been pulling away from the system and
lacks sufficient organization necessary for a tropical cyclone.
Therefore, this is the last advisory issued by the National
Hurricane Center on Gilma.  Very strong west-northwesterly shear is
expected to continue during the next few days.  These hostile winds
combined with marginal SSTs and dry air should cause the remnant low
to degenerate into a trough in 36 to 48 hours.

The remnant low is moving westward at 13 kt steered by the low-level
flow on the south side of a ridge, and it should cross into the
Central Pacific basin shortly.  This general motion is expected to
continue until the system dissipates.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 16.2N 139.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  30/0600Z 16.2N 141.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  30/1800Z 16.1N 143.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  31/0600Z 15.9N 146.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2018 12:10:33 UTC