ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018 The cloud pattern associated with the cyclone has lost organization during the past several hours, with the low-level center now located at the northern edge of a smaller area of convection. Despite the ragged appearance in satellite imagery, recent ASCAT-A data showed an area of 35 kt winds to the northeast of the center. Based on this, the cyclone has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gilma. The initial motion is 285/14. Gilma should be steered westward to west-northwestward along the southwestern flank of a large mid-level ridge extending westward from the southwestern United States. As the cyclone decays to a shallow remnant low late in the period, a more westward motion is expected. The new track forecast is similar to, but a little faster than the previous forecast, and it is a blend of the previous forecast and the multi-model consensus aids. Gilma is located just to the east of an upper-level trough, which the large-scale models forecast to move or re-form westward just ahead of the storm for the next couple of days. This evolution is expected to keep the cyclone in an area of moderate vertical wind shear, but with some upper-level divergence to maintain convection. Based on this, the intensity forecast shows a little more strengthening in agreement with the overall trend of the intensity guidance. After 36-48 h, Gilma is likely to move into strong and dry northwesterly upper-level flow west of the upper-level trough axis, which should lead to weakening and eventual dissipation. The new intensity forecast now shows dissipation by 120 h in agreement with the dynamical models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 14.4N 126.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 14.6N 128.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 15.0N 130.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 15.5N 132.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 16.1N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 17.5N 138.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 31/0600Z 17.5N 143.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2018 12:10:33 UTC